IndustriesE-commerce
An e-commerce business plan where the unit economics come first
Direct-to-consumer plans are read on contribution margin after acquisition, not on gross margin. A sixty per cent gross margin with a forty-dollar acquisition cost on a fifty-dollar order is a business that loses money faster the more it sells.
Written for an investor raise, which is where most plans in this sector goNAICS 455110
Where the money goes
Typical shares of revenue in this sector. Shown as a starting point to argue with, never as a target to hit — your own figures replace all of these at intake.
- Cost of goods
- 38%
- Landed, including freight and duty. Ex-works cost understates it badly.
- Paid acquisition
- 22%
- The line that decides viability. It rises as you scale, never falls.
- Fulfilment and shipping
- 13%
- Pick, pack, postage and returns. Free shipping is a margin decision, not a marketing one.
- Platform and payments
- 5%
- Store fees plus card processing.
A worked model
One plausible e-commerce, built out in full.
Not an illustration. These assumptions were run through the same engine the product uses, and the plan review was run over the result. It is here so you can see the shape of the answer before you start.
- Year 1 revenue
- $540.1K
- Year 3 revenue
- $1.7M
- Operating profit from
- Month 34
- Year 3 net margin
- -4.3%
- Debt
- None modelledFunded from owner capital
Balance sheet ties in all 60 periodsNo blocking findings — this model would exportLowest cash $303.6K in month 57
The revenue build
Not a growth rate. These are the drivers a reader can argue with, which is the only kind worth putting in a plan.
Online orders
Units × price
- Units in month one
- 420
- Price per unit
- $68
- Cost per unit
- $26
- Monthly growth
- 0.0%
Sixty months of it
Monthly revenue against monthly EBITDA. Both are flows, so they share an axis honestly — plotting a cumulative cash balance beside a monthly figure would flatten the one that matters. The cash trough is in the strip above.
- Monthly revenue
- Monthly EBITDA
Year by year
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Closing cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $540.1K | -$159.2K | -$165.6K | $579.3K |
| Year 2 | $1.1M | -$106.6K | -$113K | $476.8K |
| Year 3 | $1.7M | -$68.2K | -$74.6K | $412.7K |
| Year 4 | $2.3M | -$45.6K | -$52K | $371.6K |
| Year 5 | $2.6M | -$55.2K | -$61.6K | $321.4K |
Sources and uses: $0 debt, $750K owner capital, $32K of fit-out and equipment. 3 people on the payroll by month 36.
Against the e-commerce (dtc) band
Benchmarks warn; they never overwrite. An assumption outside the band is flagged with its source so you can justify it — substituting an industry median would destroy the specificity that makes a plan credible.
- Gross margin, before direct labour
- 61.8%in band
- 35.0%median 50.0%65.0%The published band is quoted on cost of goods alone, so this is the comparable figure. After direct labour the statements show 61.8%.
- Net margin
- -4.3%in band
- -10.0%median 4.0%12.0%
Source: DTC operator benchmarks, 2026 · NAICS 455110 · secondary tier. Secondary-tier bands are usable as ranges, not as something a lender will read; where a figure has to survive scrutiny we substitute RMA Annual Statement Studies or IRS SOI data. Blended CAC and return rate drive the outcome more than gross margin.
What they will ask first
A plan that answers these before they are asked reads as competent. One that does not gets sent back with them attached.
- What is contribution margin after acquisition cost?
- Revenue less goods, fulfilment and the cost of getting the order. If it is negative, growth makes the problem larger.
- What is repeat purchase rate?
- It is the only thing that makes paid acquisition affordable. A plan with no repeat assumption has assumed the worst case without saying so.
Where these plans get sent back
Acquisition cost inflation
Paid channels get more expensive with scale and with competition. A flat cost per acquisition across five years will not be believed.
Inventory and cash
Inventory is paid for before it sells. Growth consumes cash even when the business is profitable on paper.
Licences and filings to budget for
These belong in the use of funds, not in a footnote. A missing permit line is the cheapest possible reason to be sent back.
- Sales tax nexus and registration in every state where thresholds are met
- Product safety, labelling and import compliance for physical goods
- Clear returns and refund terms, which several jurisdictions mandate
Requirements vary by state, county and city, and they change. Treat this as the list to go and verify locally rather than as legal advice — the product tracks the dated ones as configuration with a source and an effective date, and prints which version it assumed.
Start from these defaults, then make them yours.
The intake pre-fills this sector’s drivers and tags each one as your figure or an industry default — and says which in the finished plan.