IndustriesBakery
A bakery business plan with a wholesale line that carries the rent
Retail bakery margins are good and retail bakery volumes are small. The plans that fund are the ones with a wholesale or café line underneath, because a production kitchen that runs four hours a day cannot cover its own build-out.
Written for an SBA or bank loan, which is where most plans in this sector goNAICS 311811
Where the money goes
Typical shares of revenue in this sector. Shown as a starting point to argue with, never as a target to hit — your own figures replace all of these at intake.
- Ingredients and packaging
- 28%
- Flour and butter move with commodity prices; a fixed-margin assumption will drift.
- Production labour
- 30%
- Overnight shifts carry a premium almost everywhere.
- Occupancy
- 10%
- Production space plus retail frontage. Splitting the two is often cheaper.
- Waste
- 4%
- Unsold fresh product. A plan with no waste line has not run a bakery.
A worked model
One plausible bakery, built out in full.
Not an illustration. These assumptions were run through the same engine the product uses, and the plan review was run over the result. It is here so you can see the shape of the answer before you start.
- Year 1 revenue
- $585.7K
- Year 3 revenue
- $1.1M
- Operating profit from
- Month 9
- Year 3 net margin
- 7.2%
- Coverage, first full year
- 1.78×EBITDA less tax, over debt service
Balance sheet ties in all 60 periodsNo blocking findings — this model would exportLowest cash $34.7K in month 9
The revenue build
Not a growth rate. These are the drivers a reader can argue with, which is the only kind worth putting in a plan.
Retail counter
Traffic × conversion × ticket
- Daily trafficPeople past the door, or covers seated
- 150
- ConversionShare who buy
- 100%
- Average ticket
- $13
- Open days per month
- 26
- Monthly growth
- 0.0%
- Cost of salesFood, drink or goods only
- 28%
Wholesale accounts
Contracts × monthly value
- Opening contracts
- 0.0
- New per month
- 0.3
- Monthly value each
- $3,200
- Term
- 24 months
- Cost of salesMaterials and consumables
- 34%
Sixty months of it
Monthly revenue against monthly EBITDA. Both are flows, so they share an axis honestly — plotting a cumulative cash balance beside a monthly figure would flatten the one that matters. The cash trough is in the strip above.
- Monthly revenue
- Monthly EBITDA
Year by year
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Closing cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $585.7K | -$25.1K | -$65.9K | $47.9K |
| Year 2 | $890.9K | $53.9K | $14.4K | $72.2K |
| Year 3 | $1.1M | $119.9K | $75.4K | $154.1K |
| Year 4 | $1.1M | $151.2K | $90.5K | $250.2K |
| Year 5 | $1.2M | $174.9K | $110.5K | $364.9K |
Sources and uses: $180K debt, $125K owner capital, $210K of fit-out and equipment. 8 people on the payroll by month 36.
Against the restaurant (full service) band
Benchmarks warn; they never overwrite. An assumption outside the band is flagged with its source so you can justify it — substituting an industry median would destroy the specificity that makes a plan credible.
- Gross margin, before direct labour
- 70.4%in band
- 60.0%median 68.0%73.0%The published band is quoted on cost of goods alone, so this is the comparable figure. After direct labour the statements show 46.5%.
- Net margin
- 7.2%in band
- 0.0%median 5.0%10.0%
Source: Restaurant industry operating reports, 2026 · NAICS 722511 · secondary tier. Secondary-tier bands are usable as ranges, not as something a lender will read; where a figure has to survive scrutiny we substitute RMA Annual Statement Studies or IRS SOI data. Prime cost (food + labour) above ~65% of revenue is the standard red flag.
What they will ask first
A plan that answers these before they are asked reads as competent. One that does not gets sent back with them attached.
- What share of revenue is wholesale?
- Wholesale is lower margin and far more predictable. A reader treats a contracted wholesale base as the floor under the whole model.
- What is your waste rate, and is it in the model?
- Fresh product unsold at close is a real cost with a real number. Leaving it out overstates gross margin by several points.
Where these plans get sent back
Ingredient price exposure
Butter, flour and eggs have all moved thirty per cent inside a year in recent memory. A fixed COGS percentage across five years will be challenged.
Production capacity as the real ceiling
Oven hours, not demand, cap revenue. A plan forecasting growth past the equipment's capacity needs the capex to match.
Licences and filings to budget for
These belong in the use of funds, not in a footnote. A missing permit line is the cheapest possible reason to be sent back.
- Food manufacturing or retail food establishment licence, depending on the wholesale share
- Allergen labelling for anything sold wholesale or packaged
- Health inspection and food handler certification
Requirements vary by state, county and city, and they change. Treat this as the list to go and verify locally rather than as legal advice — the product tracks the dated ones as configuration with a source and an effective date, and prints which version it assumed.
Start from these defaults, then make them yours.
The intake pre-fills this sector’s drivers and tags each one as your figure or an industry default — and says which in the finished plan.