Business plan
Chapel Street Kitchen
Restaurant (full service)
Prepared for a bank or SBA lender
Prepared 2026-09-20 · 5-year model
Every figure in this document was computed by a deterministic model from the assumptions listed within it. The workbook exported alongside contains the same model as live formulas.
Key figures
| Year 1 revenue | $1,252,129 |
|---|---|
| Year 3 revenue | $1,997,443 |
| Operating profit from | Month 4 |
| Lowest cash balance | $94,751 · Month 3 |
| Minimum debt service coverage | 1.62× |
01 Executive summary
Chapel Street Kitchen is a restaurant (full service) business. A 78-cover neighbourhood restaurant in a converted textile building, opening in month four after a three-month fit-out. Dinner service six nights with a weekend lunch, a short menu built around a wood oven, and a beverage programme run at a deliberately low pour cost. The owner has managed two kitchens for another operator and is buying the building rather than leasing it.
The model projects revenue of $1,252,129 in the first year, reaching $1,997,443 by year three and $2,243,267 by year five. Gross margin runs at 55.8%, against an industry band of 60.0% to 73.0%.
The business turns an operating profit in month 4. The lowest cash balance across the plan is $94,751, in month 3.
Funding comprises $180,000 of equity and owner contribution and $500,000 of debt. Debt service coverage does not fall below 1.62× in any year of the plan.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
02 Company description
Chapel Street Kitchen operates in restaurant (full service). A 78-cover neighbourhood restaurant in a converted textile building, opening in month four after a three-month fit-out. Dinner service six nights with a weekend lunch, a short menu built around a wood oven, and a beverage programme run at a deliberately low pour cost. The owner has managed two kitchens for another operator and is buying the building rather than leasing it.
The plan begins in 2026-01 and runs for 5 years. Trading begins in month 4, with the preceding months given over to preparation.
The owner draws $85,000 a year. That figure is stated explicitly because a plan showing no owner compensation invites a lender to substitute a market salary and recompute the coverage ratios themselves.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
03 Products and services
Chapel Street Kitchen earns from dining room, modelled as footfall multiplied by conversion and average spend.
The model assumes 210 people a day, of whom 62.0% buy, spending $38 on average, across 26 trading days a month.
Direct costs run at 44.2% of revenue, leaving a gross margin of 55.8%. The industry median is 68.0%.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
04 Market analysis
The market section is built from the drivers in the financial model rather than from a published market-size figure. That is deliberate: a share-of-a-large-market claim is the most common reason a market section is dismissed.
The build starts from 41,000 households within a fifteen-minute drive, of whom 38.0% are plausible buyers spending $940 a year. That gives a total addressable market of $14,645,200, of which $4,979,368 is serviceable and $1,991,747 is realistically obtainable inside the plan horizon.
The model assumes 210 people a day, of whom 62.0% buy, spending $38 on average, across 26 trading days a month.
At the modelled volumes, the business needs $118,829 of revenue a month to cover its fixed costs. Whether that level of demand exists in the catchment is the question this section has to answer, and it is the assumption most worth testing before committing capital.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
05 Competitive landscape
A competitive analysis is only persuasive when it names real competitors with observed prices and dates. Those have not yet been gathered for this plan, and this section should not pretend otherwise.
What the model does establish is the price point the business has to defend: $38. Any competitor operating below that price, or offering materially more at the same price, is a direct threat to the volumes assumed here.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
06 Marketing and sales
Marketing runs at 3.0% of revenue in the model. No per-customer acquisition cost has been established yet, which makes the marketing line the least tested assumption in the plan.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
07 Operations
Operations are modelled through the cost base rather than described separately. Operating expenses total $591,217 in year one, rising to $825,053 by year three.
Working capital assumes customers pay after 2 days and suppliers are paid after 21 days. Stock turns every 9 days.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
08 Team and management
The business is led by its owner, who takes $85,000 a year from month 1.
Alongside the owner, the plan carries 4 kitchen staff at $46,000 each, 1 kitchen staff, second section at $46,000 each, 5 front of house at $38,000 each, 2 front of house, added rota at $38,000 each. Payroll is loaded at 19.7% above gross wages to cover employer taxes and benefits.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
09 Applicable regulations
Regulatory obligations for restaurant (full service) vary by jurisdiction, and this section should be completed against the requirements of the specific city and state in which the business will operate.
Licences, inspections and insurance requirements should be confirmed with the relevant authority before the plan is submitted. A plan that asserts a specific requirement incorrectly is worse than one that states the obligation will be confirmed.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
10 Risks and mitigations
The plan reaches operating profit in month 4, and the cash trough of $94,751 in month 3 is the point of greatest exposure.
The assumption most worth challenging is the daily footfall. A shortfall there moves the revenue line directly, and the cost base is largely fixed in the first year, so the effect falls straight to cash.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
11 AI disruption resilience
Lenders began asking small-business borrowers in 2026 how artificial intelligence might reshape their industry over the life of a long loan, and have declined applications where the business looked straightforwardly automatable. This section exists to answer that question rather than avoid it.
Assessed task by task and weighted by what each part costs to run, exposure stands at 28.8% across 66.0% of the cost base — low exposure. The weighting matters: a handful of automatable tasks that cost almost nothing is a different business from one automatable task carrying most of the overhead.
The parts most open to it are reservations, covers management and front-of-house admin; bookkeeping, payroll and supplier reconciliation. Already largely automated by the booking platform. Further automation reduces cost here rather than threatening the business.
What is genuinely hard to automate here: Dinner in a room, cooked to order, is not a task that moves to software. The exposure in this business is in its back office, where automation lowers cost rather than removing the reason customers come.
The response is planned rather than hoped for: bookkeeping and payroll on an automated platform from opening., to holds administrative cost flat as covers grow, rather than scaling with them.; menu costing against live supplier pricing, reviewed monthly., to keeps food cost inside the modelled band when input prices move..
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
12 Financial plan
Revenue is built from drivers rather than from a growth rate. The model assumes 210 people a day, of whom 62.0% buy, spending $38 on average, across 26 trading days a month.
The result is $1,252,129 in year one and $2,243,267 by year five, with EBITDA moving from $89,289 to $410,718 over the same period.
The balance sheet ties in all 60 periods of the model. Cash reaches its low point of $94,751 in month 3, and does not go negative at any point.
Debt service coverage is 1.62× in year 1, 4.14× in year 2, 4.20× in year 3, 5.24× in year 4, 6.02× in year 5.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
13 Suggested next steps
Three things determine whether this plan survives contact with a reader. First, the market section needs real evidence: named competitors, observed prices, and a bottom-up demand estimate for the specific catchment.
Second, the assumptions currently carried as industry defaults should be replaced with measured figures wherever that is possible. The plan records which is which, and a reader will notice.
Third, the cash trough of $94,751 in month 3 should be stress-tested against a slower start than the one modelled.
— This section was composed directly from the financial model because no language model is configured. Set ANTHROPIC_API_KEY to generate it with Claude. Every figure above is the same computed figure either way.
Market size, built from the ground up
Each line is derived from the one above it, so a reader can disagree with one number rather than with the conclusion.
| households within a fifteen-minute drive | 41,000 |
|---|---|
| Of whom are plausible buyers 38% of 41,000 | 15,580 |
| Spend each per year | $940 |
| Total addressable market 15,580 × spend | $14,645,200 |
| Serviceable, given where and how we sell 34% of the total | $4,979,368 |
| Obtainable inside the plan horizon 40% of serviceable | $1,991,747 |
Financial statements
5 years, computed from the drivers listed in the plan. The balance sheet carries its own tie row.
Profit and loss
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dining room | $1,252,129 | $1,819,501 | $1,997,443 | $2,135,512 | $2,243,267 |
| Revenue | $1,252,129 | $1,819,501 | $1,997,443 | $2,135,512 | $2,243,267 |
| Cost of sales | ($571,623) | ($816,307) | ($894,402) | ($937,204) | ($970,608) |
| Gross profit | $680,505 | $1,003,193 | $1,103,041 | $1,198,309 | $1,272,659 |
| Salaries | ($272,204) | ($351,771) | ($419,971) | ($419,971) | ($419,971) |
| Rent | ($138,000) | ($142,140) | ($146,404) | ($150,796) | ($155,320) |
| Utilities | ($38,400) | ($39,936) | ($41,533) | ($43,195) | ($44,923) |
| Marketing | ($37,564) | ($54,585) | ($59,923) | ($64,065) | ($67,298) |
| Insurance | ($17,400) | ($17,400) | ($17,400) | ($17,400) | ($17,400) |
| Other | ($87,649) | ($127,365) | ($139,821) | ($149,486) | ($157,029) |
| Operating expenses | ($591,217) | ($733,197) | ($825,053) | ($844,914) | ($861,941) |
| of which owner compensation Shown separately because a lender recomputes coverage without it. | $101,702 | $101,702 | $101,702 | $101,702 | $101,702 |
| EBITDA | $89,289 | $269,996 | $277,987 | $353,395 | $410,718 |
| Depreciation | ($53,131) | ($54,143) | ($54,143) | ($54,143) | ($54,143) |
| Operating profit | $36,158 | $215,853 | $223,844 | $299,252 | $356,575 |
| Interest | ($48,792) | ($47,952) | ($46,989) | ($45,928) | ($44,757) |
| Profit before tax | ($12,634) | $167,901 | $176,855 | $253,324 | $311,818 |
| Tax | $0 | ($32,606) | ($37,140) | ($53,198) | ($65,482) |
| Net income | ($12,634) | $135,295 | $139,716 | $200,126 | $246,336 |
Cash flow
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | ($12,634) | $135,295 | $139,716 | $200,126 | $246,336 |
| Depreciation added back | $53,131 | $54,143 | $54,143 | $54,143 | $54,143 |
| Change in receivables | ($9,425) | ($1,121) | ($877) | ($679) | ($536) |
| Change in inventory | ($18,573) | ($2,920) | ($1,223) | ($947) | ($748) |
| Change in payables | $83,293 | $13,544 | $4,113 | $3,271 | $2,666 |
| Change in deferred revenue | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Operating cash flow | $95,792 | $198,942 | $195,871 | $255,914 | $301,862 |
| Capital expenditure | ($505,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Investing cash flow | ($505,000) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Equity raised | $180,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Grants received | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt drawn | $500,000 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt repaid | ($6,466) | ($9,391) | ($10,354) | ($11,415) | ($12,585) |
| Financing cash flow | $673,534 | ($9,391) | ($10,354) | ($11,415) | ($12,585) |
| Net change in cash | $264,327 | $189,551 | $185,517 | $244,499 | $289,277 |
| Closing cash | $264,327 | $453,878 | $639,395 | $883,893 | $1,173,170 |
Balance sheet
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | $264,327 | $453,878 | $639,395 | $883,893 | $1,173,170 |
| Accounts receivable | $9,425 | $10,546 | $11,423 | $12,102 | $12,638 |
| Inventory | $18,573 | $21,492 | $22,716 | $23,663 | $24,411 |
| Property and equipment, net | $451,869 | $397,726 | $343,583 | $289,440 | $235,298 |
| Total assets | $744,194 | $883,642 | $1,017,117 | $1,209,099 | $1,445,516 |
| Accounts payable | $83,293 | $96,837 | $100,950 | $104,221 | $106,887 |
| Deferred revenue | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Debt | $493,534 | $484,144 | $473,790 | $462,375 | $449,789 |
| Total liabilities | $576,827 | $580,981 | $574,740 | $566,596 | $556,677 |
| Paid-in capital | $180,000 | $180,000 | $180,000 | $180,000 | $180,000 |
| Retained earnings | ($12,634) | $122,661 | $262,377 | $462,503 | $708,839 |
| Total equity | $167,366 | $302,661 | $442,377 | $642,503 | $888,839 |
| Assets less liabilities and equity Zero in every period, or the model is wrong. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Underwriter view
Debt service coverage
Cash available is EBITDA less cash taxes. The threshold is 1.10× for SBA 7(a) Small Loan, per SBA Notice 5000-875701, in force from 2026-03-01.
| Year | Cash available | Debt service | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $89,289 | $55,257 | 1.62× |
| Year 2 | $237,390 | $57,343 | 4.14× |
| Year 3 | $240,848 | $57,343 | 4.20× |
| Year 4 | $300,197 | $57,343 | 5.24× |
| Year 5 | $345,236 | $57,343 | 6.02× |
SBA 504
$500,000 at 9.80% over 240 months, 3 interest-only
| Year | Opening | Interest | Principal | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $500,000 | $48,792 | $6,466 | $493,534 |
| Year 2 | $493,534 | $47,952 | $9,391 | $484,144 |
| Year 3 | $484,144 | $46,989 | $10,354 | $473,790 |
| Year 4 | $473,790 | $45,928 | $11,415 | $462,375 |
| Year 5 | $462,375 | $44,757 | $12,585 | $449,789 |
| Year 6 | $449,789 | $43,467 | $13,876 | $435,913 |
| Year 7 | $435,913 | $42,044 | $15,298 | $420,615 |
| Year 8 | $420,615 | $40,476 | $16,867 | $403,748 |
| Year 9 | $403,748 | $38,747 | $18,596 | $385,152 |
| Year 10 | $385,152 | $36,840 | $20,503 | $364,649 |
| Year 11 | $364,649 | $34,738 | $22,605 | $342,045 |
| Year 12 | $342,045 | $32,421 | $24,922 | $317,122 |
| Year 13 | $317,122 | $29,866 | $27,477 | $289,645 |
| Year 14 | $289,645 | $27,048 | $30,294 | $259,351 |
| Year 15 | $259,351 | $23,943 | $33,400 | $225,950 |
| Year 16 | $225,950 | $20,518 | $36,825 | $189,126 |
| Year 17 | $189,126 | $16,743 | $40,600 | $148,526 |
| Year 18 | $148,526 | $12,580 | $44,763 | $103,763 |
| Year 19 | $103,763 | $7,991 | $49,352 | $54,411 |
| Year 20 | $54,411 | $2,931 | $54,411 | $0 |
Sources and uses
| Owner injection | $180,000 |
|---|---|
| SBA 504 | $500,000 |
| Total sources | $680,000 |
| Kitchen build | $420,000 |
| Furniture | $85,000 |
| Working capital and operating runway | $175,000 |
Equity injection 26.5% of total capital, against a 10.0% minimum (SBA SOP 50 10 8).
Owner compensation
Shown separately because a lender recomputes coverage without it, and because the E-2 marginality test is assessed on it.
| Year 1 | $101,702 |
|---|---|
| Year 2 | $101,702 |
| Year 3 | $101,702 |
| Year 4 | $101,702 |
| Year 5 | $101,702 |
AI disruption resilience
Assessed task by task and weighted by what each part costs to run, exposure stands at 28.8% across 66.0% of the cost base — low exposure.
What is genuinely hard to automate here: Dinner in a room, cooked to order, is not a task that moves to software. The exposure in this business is in its back office, where automation lowers cost rather than removing the reason customers come.
| Task | Share of cost | Exposure |
|---|---|---|
| Reservations, covers management and front-of-house admin Already largely automated by the booking platform. Further automation reduces cost here rather than threatening the business. | 6.0% | high |
| Cooking and plating service The work happens in a place, at a time, with hands. Automation has moved parts of high-volume production kitchens and has not moved à la carte service. | 46.0% | low |
| Bookkeeping, payroll and supplier reconciliation Routine, rules-based and already offered as a service. Expected to fall in cost over the life of the loan. | 5.0% | high |
Sources
No outside sources were relied on in this plan.
Methodology
Every figure in the statements was computed by a deterministic model from the assumptions in this document. No figure was written by a language model; the narrative describes arithmetic it did not perform. The narrative in this document was composed directly from the model.
Industry context is drawn from Restaurant industry operating reports, 2026 for Restaurant (full service). Benchmarks are shown for comparison and never substituted for the figures in this plan.
Regulatory values used
| Value | Used | Source | In force from | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service coverage threshold (SBA 7(a) Small Loan) | 1.10× | SBA Notice 5000-875701 | 2026-03-01 | secondary |
| 7(a) Small Loan ceiling | $500,000 | SBA SOP 50 10 8 | 2025-06-01 | unverified |
| Minimum equity injection | 10.0% | SBA SOP 50 10 8 | 2025-06-01 | secondary |
Configuration last reviewed 2026-09-19.
Still to be confirmed against a primary source
Listed rather than omitted. A plan that marks its own unverified inputs is worth more than one that presents everything with equal confidence.
- SBA SOP DSCR thresholds and the 2026-10-01 SOP 50 10 8.1 change
- SBA guaranty fee schedule (fiscal-year dependent)
- 7(a) Small Loan ceiling, which selects the DSCR threshold
- Section 179 limit and bonus depreciation percentage for 2026
- FICA wage base for 2026
- EB-5 thresholds and the 2027-01-01 inflation adjustment
- Matter of Ho element list, against the original decision
- 9 FAM 402.9 subsection lettering (sources conflict; no pin cites until resolved)